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Episode 7 – What does Data say about Blue Monday?

Transcript

Hello everybody, and welcome back to Data with Duke — the podcast where we interrogate data until it admits what it really knows, and occasionally remind ourselves that spreadsheets don’t care about our feelings.

Today’s episode is about Blue Monday, recorded on the 19th of January 2026 — officially Blue Monday. Allegedly the most depressing day of the year.

A phrase that gets rolled out every January like a seasonal flu jab, usually accompanied by a sad stock photo, an inspirational quote, and at least one advert for a gym membership you absolutely will not still be using in March.

But is Blue Monday actually real? More importantly… is it backed by data?

And while we’re here, why do New Year’s resolutions die faster than a houseplant left in my care? What does the data actually say about behaviour change, motivation, and how we can stop turning January into an annual disappointment festival?

Let’s dig in.

What is Blue Monday?

Blue Monday is usually described as the third Monday in January, supposedly the most depressing day of the year thanks to a perfect storm of:

You reach mid-January, payday is still miles away, the fridge contains half a tin of beans, and suddenly pizza is a distant fantasy.

So… Blue Monday was born.

The phrase was popularised around 2005, originating from a press release tied to a travel company campaign. It even came with a formula.

Yes. A formula.

Because nothing screams scientific credibility like a sadness equation.

The formula allegedly included variables such as weather, debt, time since Christmas, time since quitting your resolution, and motivation levels. It looked impressive. It had letters. People love letters.

There was just one problem.

It had zero scientific basis.

No peer review. No real data. No reproducible methodology. In technical terms: absolute nonsense.

Psychologists, statisticians, and mathematicians quickly pointed out that assigning a single “most depressing day” is about as valid as declaring Thursday the loneliest colour.

And yet… Blue Monday stuck.

Why?

Because even bad data can be emotionally relatable.

Why Blue Monday feels real (even though it isn’t)

Here’s the nuance.

Blue Monday isn’t scientifically real. There’s no dataset that proves a specific day causes peak misery.

But January is hard for a lot of people.

And there are data-backed factors that explain why it feels rough.

Seasonality and mood

There’s fairly robust evidence that mood disorders like Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) increase during winter months in places like the UK.

Reduced daylight affects circadian rhythms and serotonin levels. Dark mornings and early sunsets genuinely impact wellbeing.

So yes — winter does matter.

Financial hangovers

January is peak credit card regret season.

Data from UK financial institutions shows increased debt stress and budgeting anxiety after Christmas.

No one feels mentally resilient while staring at a bank statement that looks like it’s been mugged.

Motivation fatigue

Motivation is not a renewable resource.

Starting the year with massive lifestyle overhauls — diet, fitness, productivity, personal development — often leads to burnout within weeks.

January is basically the month where we try to become a new person while still running on emotional fumes from December.

The brutal truth about New Year’s resolutions

This is where the numbers get very honest.

Which means that by the time Blue Monday arrives, a significant number of people have already quietly abandoned their resolutions.

No announcement. No ceremony. Just silence.

And that silence feeds shame, demotivation, and the feeling that you’ve already “failed” the year.

Why resolutions fail (according to data)

Let’s break this down properly.

1. They’re too vague

“Get fit.” “Be happier.” “Save money.”

Those aren’t goals — they’re vibes.

Goals without specific, measurable criteria have dramatically lower success rates. If you can’t measure progress, your brain assumes nothing is happening.

Ten sit-ups and no six-pack? Clearly pointless, says your brain.

2. They rely on motivation instead of systems

Motivation is a mood. It fluctuates based on sleep, food, stress, and whatever Karen said in the office yesterday.

Systems persist. Habits tied to routine and environment succeed far more often than willpower alone.

If your goal requires daily motivation, it will fail the moment life happens — usually around January 10th.

3. They’re based on identity fantasy

Many resolutions are attempts to become a different person overnight.

“I’ll become someone who loves running.” “I’ll become disciplined.” “I’ll become organised.”

Behaviour change sticks when it’s incremental and identity-aligned, not aspirational cosplay.

Your brain resists sudden personality rewrites.

4. They ignore baseline reality

Humans massively underestimate how long things take and how chaotic real life is.

This is known as the planning fallacy.

January You is optimistic. February You is realistic. March You is annoyed.

5. There’s no feedback loop

Most failed resolutions have no tracking, no checkpoints, and no review.

Without feedback, there’s no correction — only abandonment.

What does work?

Here’s the good news. Successful resolutions tend to share common characteristics.

Behaviour-focused, not outcome-focused

Instead of “lose 10kg”, try:

“I’ll walk for 20 minutes, four times a week.”

You control behaviour. You don’t fully control outcomes.

Make it small. Embarrassingly small.

Habit research consistently shows smaller goals outperform ambitious ones.

If your goal doesn’t feel slightly underwhelming, it’s probably too big.

Consistency beats heroics.

Track something

Not spreadsheets. Not dashboards. Just… something.

A note. A message to yourself. A private log.

What matters to the brain is visibility. If progress isn’t visible, your brain forgets it exists.

Use if-then planning

“If I miss a workout, then I’ll walk for 10 minutes tomorrow.”

This prevents all-or-nothing collapse — the thing that kills most resolutions.

Missing once is normal. Quitting entirely is optional.

Expect failure

Successful goal-setters expect setbacks and plan for them.

Failure is feedback, not proof you’re bad at this.

The 30-day experiment (a better alternative)

Instead of a traditional New Year’s resolution, try this:

You’re not promising transformation. You’re gathering data.

This reframes the goal from “I must succeed” to “let’s see what happens” — which dramatically reduces psychological pressure.

At the end, ask four questions:

  1. What worked?
  2. What didn’t?
  3. What was harder than expected?
  4. What was easier than expected?

Then adjust.

This is essentially agile methodology for your life: small increments, regular review, continuous improvement.

So… why does Blue Monday still exist?

Because even though it isn’t scientifically real, it reflects real pressures:

It’s not that this Monday is special. It’s that January is overloaded.

Making Blue Monday better (without toxic positivity)

This isn’t about flipping your mindset upside down. It’s about reducing cognitive load.

Mental load is one of the biggest contributors to stress. Externalising thoughts reduces it — even if nothing else changes.

Final thoughts

Data doesn’t care about January. It’s just a month.

The pressures are real, but the idea of a single “most depressing day” isn’t.

What the data does tell us is this:

If this January feels heavy, that’s not failure. It’s feedback.

And unlike motivation, data sticks around long enough to help.

Be kind to yourself. Track what matters.

And remember: if your resolution has failed — congratulations. You’ve just learned something.

This is Duke, signing off.